Live · Macro Playbook · Clear

When macro moves, metals move. Here's the historical playbook.

HY credit spreads, yield-curve inversions, housing, jobless claims, oil shocks — the rules that have reliably preceded every recession since 1976. Every card shows you the current value, the level that flips it, and what gold, silver, GDX and GDXJ have historically done while it was at warn or alert.

10 rules · 6 recessionsUpdated daily · 05:00 UTCAs of 2026-06-12

Composite risk level

10.5

/ 100

Clear

Triggered1

Warning0

Watch0

Clear6

When the composite last crossed 40…

A recession followed within 16 months (median). Gold rallied +12.8% over the next year.

Median lead

16mo

34 prior matches

Gold fwd 12m

+12.8%

median

SPX fwd 12m

+12.3%

median

Composite · vs NBER recessions

Composite scoreNBER recessionLatest: clear

Triggered rules

Oil +50% / 6m (Hamilton)

Alert

WTI +50% over 6 months. 10/11 post-war recessions associated with an oil shock. Binary supply-shock amplifier.

Value

+58.8%

Target

≥ Alert

Lead

~6mo

Triggered 2026-04-29 (44d)

Fwd 6-month median returnWhile rule is active

	Au	Ag	GDX	GDXJ	SPX
Warn	+0.5%	-4.4%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—
Alert	-0.1%	-0.4%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—

Oil supply shock — WTI up 50% in six months. Historically this is the worst moment to add to miners.

AVOID juniors: GDXJ -17% median over 6 months, 94% of windows negative. Silver -2.5%. Gold roughly flat. Equities surprisingly resilient (+12%).

Clear

HY OAS > 600 / 800 bps

Clear

High-yield credit spread. > 600 bps = warn, > 800 bps = triggered. Zero false positives since 1996 when combined with curve inversion.

Value

278 bp

Target

> 800 bps

Lead

~2mo

Hit rate 100%

Fwd 6-month median returnWhile rule is active

	Au	Ag	GDX	GDXJ	SPX
Warn	+5.0%	+2.2%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—
Alert	+9.7%	+6.6%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—

10Y-3M curve regime

Clear

10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread. Rule fires (status 3) while the curve is inverted or during the 12 months after un-inversion — the classic Estrella-Mishkin peak-risk window. Lead: 12-18 months.

Value

0.70

Target

≥ Clear

Lead

~14mo

Hit rate 89%

Fwd 6-month median returnWhile rule is active

	Au	Ag	GDX	GDXJ	SPX
Warn	+8.0%	+9.8%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—
Alert	+8.5%	+3.9%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—

10Y-2Y curve regime (steepener-aware)

Clear

10Y-2Y spread with bull/bear steepener decomposition. Status 3 during inversion (unchanged). In the 12mo post-uninversion window we classify the steepener type via 60-day Δ on each leg: bull steepener (2Y falling faster — Fed cuts being priced in) keeps status 3 (40% historical recession-within-12mo rate); bear steepener (10Y rising faster — healthy growth expectations) downgrades to status 1 (only 14% rate); flattening also status 1; neutral status 2. Empirical lift: bull-steepener filter takes precision from 27.5% (baseline uninversion) to 40% (1985-present).

Value

0.39

Target

≥ Clear

Lead

~10mo

Hit rate 100%

Fwd 6-month median returnWhile rule is active

	Au	Ag	GDX	GDXJ	SPX
Warn	-2.6%	-3.5%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—
Alert	+6.1%	+1.7%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—

Housing Starts YoY < -20%

Clear

Housing starts YoY change. Double-digit decline preceded 8 of 9 recessions since 1960. Lead: 6-12 months.

Value

+9.5%

Target

≥ Clear

Lead

~9mo

Hit rate 89%

Fwd 6-month median returnWhile rule is active

	Au	Ag	GDX	GDXJ	SPX
Warn	+1.2%	0.0%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—
Alert	+1.2%	+1.1%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—

Initial Claims 4wk MA YoY > +20%

Clear

Initial jobless claims 4-week MA YoY. Reliably coincident, weak lead. Best used as a confirming signal alongside curve + credit. **Now superseded in the composite by the No Hire, No Fire Index** — kept here for the per-rule timeline only.

Value

-7.9%

Target

≥ Clear

Lead

~1mo

Hit rate 90%

Fwd 6-month median returnWhile rule is active

	Au	Ag	GDX	GDXJ	SPX
Warn	+0.9%	-5.3%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—
Alert	+4.5%	+0.7%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—

Tactical signal — flags miner-specific risk, excluded from composite.

Sovereign bond stress

Clear

Counts four sovereign-debt stress sub-signals: (1) 10Y rate shock ≥ +60 bps/60d while bear-steepening, (2) long-bond index ≥ 12% below its 1y high (duration crash), (3) gold outrunning bonds by ≥ 25pp over 90d (fiat-hedge rotation), (4) ≥ 2 of Japan/UK/Germany 10Y up ≥ 50 bps over 6m (global selloff). 1 = watch, 2 = warn, 2+ incl. fiat-hedge = alert. Excluded from the recession composite — bond stress episodes (1994, 2013, 2022) historically did NOT predict US recessions (2/9 hit rate).

Value

0.0

Target

≥ Clear

Lead

~6mo

Hit rate 22%

Fwd 6-month median returnWhile rule is active

	Au	Ag	GDX	GDXJ	SPX
Warn	+2.9%	+4.8%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—
Alert	-3.4%	-16.7%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—

Tactical signal — flags miner-specific risk, excluded from composite.

Oil shock × credit widening

Clear

Oil shock fires + HY OAS is widening (20d Δ ≥ +30 bps) AND HY OAS level ≥ 350 bps. Empirically distinguishes 'oil shock that survives' (HY tight) from 'oil shock that kills miners' (HY widening). 4/4 GDX killer events since 2007 had this combo; 3/3 survivors did not. Excluded from recession composite (it's a miner-tactical signal, not a recession-risk signal).

Value

58.8

Target

≥ Clear

Lead

~0mo

Hit rate 100%

Fwd 6-month median returnWhile rule is active

	Au	Ag	GDX	GDXJ	SPX
Warn	+7.5%	-1.8%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—
Alert	-3.6%	+6.6%	-14.2%	+7.3%	—

Tactical signal — flags miner-specific risk, excluded from composite.

SLOOS C&I tightening

Clear

Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: net % of large/mid-market banks tightening C&I lending standards. ≥ 10% = watch, ≥ 20% = warn, ≥ 20% for 2+ consecutive quarters OR ≥ 35% = alert. Quarterly since 1990-Q2. Catches credit-led recessions (1990, 2001, 2008); does not catch pure supply-shock recessions (COVID). Confirming signal, not primary.

Value

8.1

Target

≥ Clear

Lead

~3mo

Hit rate 75%

Fwd 6-month median returnWhile rule is active

	Au	Ag	GDX	GDXJ	SPX
Alert	+4.5%	+1.5%	+0.2%	+11.1%	—

No Hire, No Fire Index

Clear

Labor-market composite (NFP 6mo trend, continuing claims trend, yield curve, 10Y yield trend) inspired by George Gammon's framework. Backtested AUC 0.92, avg 5.3-month lead, zero false positives across 2001/2008/2020. Replaces the standalone claims_yoy + sahm rules in the composite.

Value

69.4

Target

≥ Clear

Lead

~5mo

Hit rate 92%

After the last 34 ≥ 40 readings

Gold wins, SPX mixed, miners volatile.

Forward returns measured from the day the composite first crossed 40 (events at least 6 months apart).

First ≥ 40	Rules triggered	Months → recession	Gold fwd 12m	SPX fwd 12m	GDX fwd 12m
1978-09-29	1	15 mo	+90.3%	+5.9%	0.0%
1979-03-28	1	9 mo	+112.4%	-3.8%	0.0%
1979-09-24	1	3 mo	+86.2%	+18.1%	0.0%
1980-03-24	1	15 mo	+0.4%	+35.6%	0.0%
1980-09-22	1	9 mo	-35.8%	-10.5%	0.0%
1981-03-23	1	3 mo	-37.6%	-16.3%	0.0%
1981-09-21	0	105 mo	-4.6%	+6.5%	0.0%
1982-03-22	1	99 mo	+27.0%	+33.6%	0.0%
1982-09-20	1	93 mo	-3.5%	+38.1%	0.0%
1989-03-03	1	16 mo	+4.1%	+14.6%	0.0%
1989-08-30	2	10 mo	+6.0%	-9.1%	0.0%
1990-02-26	2	4 mo	-11.3%	+10.4%	0.0%
1990-08-27	2	126 mo	-8.1%	+22.3%	0.0%
2000-03-16	1	11 mo	-8.3%	-21.1%	0.0%
2000-09-12	2	6 mo	+3.1%	-29.9%	0.0%
2001-03-12	2	81 mo	+9.4%	-1.2%	0.0%
2001-09-10	3	75 mo	+10.6%	-16.7%	0.0%
2003-02-07	1	58 mo	+12.1%	+37.4%	0.0%
2006-04-19	1	19 mo	+12.8%	+12.3%	+10.3%
2006-10-16	2	14 mo	+28.0%	+12.4%	+31.2%
2007-04-16	2	8 mo	+37.4%	-9.1%	+14.5%
2007-10-15	1	2 mo	+11.6%	-35.6%	-43.0%
2008-04-14	1	142 mo	-4.0%	-36.6%	-29.8%
2008-10-13	1	136 mo	+27.1%	+7.0%	+83.5%
2009-04-13	1	130 mo	+29.9%	+39.4%	+41.4%
2009-10-12	0	124 mo	+29.0%	+8.7%	+18.4%
2020-03-16	2	— no NBER yet	+14.2%	+66.1%	+48.9%
2020-09-14	1	— no NBER yet	-8.1%	+31.3%	-24.6%
2022-10-18	1	— no NBER yet	+21.1%	+16.0%	+24.7%
2023-04-17	2	— no NBER yet	+17.7%	+21.7%	-3.7%
2023-10-16	2	— no NBER yet	+39.0%	+33.0%	+40.3%
2024-05-01	2	— no NBER yet	+40.7%	+11.7%	+41.7%
2024-10-28	2	— no NBER yet	+41.6%	+18.3%	+71.7%
2025-04-28	2	— no NBER yet	+38.6%	+29.1%	+79.1%
Median	—	16 mo	+12.8%	+12.3%	0.0%

Forward returns measured from first cross of 40 · events ≥ 6 months apart · median across 34 events